Tag Archives: 2012 elections

What Barack Obama’s reelection means for Texas

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Last night, most conservatives were devastated to learn Barack Obama had been reelected as President of the United States.

As for me? Meh.

Frankly, in Texas, it really doesn’t matter who is president.

Our economy is strong. The Lone Star State emerged early from a nationwide recession with by far the best jobs numbers. Its thriving economy, low cost of living and low unemployment continue to attract disgruntled folks from other states.

Our leaders are strong. With conservative officeholders at the state level who are anything but shy and Republican majorities in both houses, we can be sure Texas won’t soon cave to political pressure. As David Guenthner of the Texas Public Policy Foundation noted on an election recap conference call today, our state election results were heartening: “Texas is continuing to chart a different path than the rest of the nation.”

Our continued emphasis on states’ rights is strong. President Obama will no doubt continue leading this country down the path of government growth, reckless spending, and increased regulation. But Texans are feisty. We will continue standing up to federal overreach – for the sake of our own state and all the others.

In a political sense, Obama’s win does matter for Texas. After all, a Democratic victory this time opens the door for a Republican one next time, and it could clear Texas’ candidate logjam.

I’m disappointed about last night. But I’m already looking forward to two exciting potential races: Abbott 2014, Perry 2016.

Social media in the Texas primary

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Along with blogging, following the elections, and applying for jobs this summer, I’m also working on my honors thesis at St. Edward’s: “All Politics is Social: Social Media 101 for State and Local Political Campaigns.”

The finished project, which I plan to publish on this blog, will explain best practices with a particular focus on small, grassroots-based campaigns that are tight on time and money and need a little boost in the social sphere. I’m planning to incorporate secondary research, interviews with experts in Texas politics and/or social media, and some number-crunching of my own.

In March, after candidate filing closed and around the time the redistricting legal battle was (finally) settled, I created a database of every State House and Senate candidate and how many Facebook fans and Twitter followers they had. This week, just after the primary, I updated those numbers and have been using them to gather insights about who has been most effective on social media and what tactics other campaigns could implement.

There are a ton of granular insights analytics addicts like me might find interesting, but first I wanted to share the few general statements I’ve gathered so far: First, having more fans or followers doesn’t guarantee victory. Second, incumbency – or at least some form of political prominence – is really the best advantage you can have… but challengers exhibit the greatest growth.

Here’s a graph comparing the size of candidates’ following as of this week compared to the percentage of the vote they pulled in the primary:

(Click to see larger)

If you ignore the outliers on the right side of the graph, you can see there is some correlation, at least up to about 1,000 on Facebook and 500 on Twitter. But, though I haven’t dusted off my AP Statistics textbook quite yet, I don’t think it’s quite strong enough to make a definitive statement at this time.

And here’s what I find most interesting: the rankings. In the lists of candidates with the largest following, especially on Facebook, you’ll recognize just about all the names.

Facebook, Texas House

  1. Joe Straus, 7,227
  2. James White, 5,687
  3. Ryan Guillen, 5,329
  4. Mike Villarreal, 5,110
  5. Van Taylor, 4,114

Facebook, Texas Senate

  1. Elizabeth Ames Jones, 12,478
  2. Kirk Watson, 11,444
  3. Dan Patrick, 10,909
  4. Leticia Van De Putte, 6,049
  5. Donna Campbell, 5,264

Twitter, Texas House

  1. Joe Straus, 4,687
  2. Chris Scotti, 2,641
  3. Stephanie Klick, 2,485
  4. John Faulk, 2,200
  5. Eddie Rodriguez, 2,099

Twitter, Texas Senate

  1. Dan Patrick, 4,756
  2. Leticia Van De Putte, 3,535
  3. Kirk Watson, 3,280
  4. Rodney Ellis, 2,427
  5. Elizabeth Ames Jones, 1,873

But when ranking candidates who saw the most growth in following between March and May, some of the names are a bit less familiar. Here’s where the conservative challengers, in the House in particular, showed their quality. Most either won outright or are in a runoff.

Facebook, Texas House

  1. Jon Cole, 1,286 added
  2. Troy Bonin, 941 added
  3. Jonathan Stickland, 658 added
  4. Dan Branch, 576 added
  5. Giovanni Capriglione, 564 added

Twitter, Texas House

  1. Greg Bonnen, 527
  2. Troy Bonin, 426
  3. Josh Tetens, 350
  4. Lady Theresa Thombs, 272
  5. Joe Straus, 257

Facebook, Texas Senate

  1. Kirk Watson, 5,905
  2. Kelly Hancock, 988
  3. Donna Campbell, 495
  4. Wendy Davis, 489
  5. Charles Schwertner, 476

Twitter, Texas Senate

  1. Leticia Van De Putte, 395
  2. Wendy Davis, 390
  3. Kirk Watson, 328
  4. Dan Patrick, 207
  5. Rodney Ellis, 201

Interesting, right? The big-name incumbents are still there, but mostly in the Senate where there are fewer and more prominent members. Democrats are, perhaps surprisingly, prominent throughout. But in the State House, conservative, grassroots candidates with minimal political exposure saw substantial growth. Were they using social media particularly effectively, or did word of their candidacy just happen to spread? I don’t know yet. More analysis is yet to come.

Your thoughts? Any data I should add? Insights I missed? Favorite candidates I should be sure to analyze?

Update: Thanks to the folks in Leticia Van De Putte’s office for correcting an error in the Facebook growth list.

Guest post: Texas GOP convention wrap-up, part 3

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Greetings again, dear readers!

I will start by again thanking Katie for allowing me to crash her blog – hope y’all enjoyed my last blog post. I’m planning to finish up reporting on the Republican State Convention in today’s post.

Last time, I left you at the break after we approved the report of the Permanent Rules Committee. Chairman Munisteri gaveled us into recess so that some of the delegation could go to the RPT Gala with special guest Rick Santorum. I was unable to attend the Gala, but I did hear of something terrific that happened at the dinner. According to several attendees, a balloon popped while Santorum was speaking. He quipped, “They missed!” while the lady sitting next to Rep. Jason Isaac reached for her boot. (Hooray for the 2nd Amendment!) This theme followed throughout the convention. Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson retorted that the only reason Texas Republicans were being so nice to each other at Convention was because, “we’re all packing!” He was probably right, too!

After dinner, the delegation came back into the arena to begin deliberating the Party Platform. It was at this point that I realized what an asset to our Party Chairman Steve Munisteri is. He explained every single action, helping speakers along with correct verbiage and Robert’s Rules etiquette. He ran the most organized and courteous convention I have ever had the pleasure to attend. Republicans in Texas are blessed to have him.

Onto the Platform. There were really only a few major changes, but they were vigorously argued. One topic that didn’t cause a fight on the floor because of the actions of the Permanent Platform Committee was that of the pro-life planks of our Platform. The sub-committee had eliminated much of the wording, significantly changing and weakening our Party’s official stance on the pro-life agenda. However, when the sub-committee made their report to the Permanent Committee, they were overruled and the entirely of the 2010 language was reinstated to the 2012 Platform. This plank was not touched by the General Delegation, so remains as strong as it was written two years ago.

On the floor of the general session, we inserted a plank urging the elimination of the Environmental Protection Agency. It passed overwhelmingly.

An amendment to the plank on Health and Human Services mandates regarding standing with the Catholic bishops on the issue of birth control failed. Most of the arguments against it focused on the fact that if we mentioned support for the Catholic Church, we should mention all faiths.

The last portion of the Platform was the most hotly debated and consisted of most of the 2.75 hours of debate Friday night: immigration. The 2012 Platform Committee probably spent the most time on this portion. The language on the issue of immigration in the 2010 Platform was very spirited, but more “one-liners” about what we believed than an approach on how to fix the problem. The committee took nearly all of the issues and moved them to the appropriate sections, (i.e., in-state tuition for non-citizens was moved to the “Education” plank, etc.)

They replaced the 2010 language with what they dubbed “The Texas Solution.” It included two sections that caused a majority of the issues within the general delegation. First, it eliminated the strong language against amnesty, including acknowledging the fact that it would be “impractical” to deport all of the illegal immigrants in our country. It also advocated for a temporary worker program for those immigrants who would come to the country legally (or, for those already here illegally, would pay all fines associated with their crime) to work.

Several attempts were made to replace the 2012 language with the 2010 language. After vigorous and loooong debate, that motion failed. The arguments were that the language was not strong enough, and that eliminated much of the plank. Supporters of the 2012 language pointed out that nothing was lost of the 2010 language – it was just placed in different areas of the Platform. Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson received special permission from the delegation to speak in favor of the new language about the Temporary Worker Program (since Commissioner Patterson was not a delegate, we had to suspend the rules to allow him to speak.) People tried to amend the 2012 language on numerous occasions, but every motion failed. We gaveled out of that long session about half after 11 p.m.

Saturday morning, we started our second Congressional District Caucuses. The job of each CD was to elect 3 delegates and 3 alternates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL in August. Additionally, we were to nominate a man and a woman to represent Texas on the Republican National Committee. Finally, each CD elected a presidential elector to go to the Electoral College in December of this year.

While, of course, each of the 36 Congressional Districts conducted their own business, my CD, CD-19 elected me as first alternate to the National Convention, and one of our longest working Republican women to the electoral college. Our CD nominated Weston Martinez and Borah Van Dormolen to the RNC, but most of the CDs nominated Dr. Robin Armstrong, former Vice-Chairman of the RPT. All of the CDs nominated Borah Van Dormolen as Committeewoman. Weston and Chairman Curt Nelson conceded to Dr. Armstrong, so he was elected as RNC Committeeman.

Representative Paul Ryan spoke to the general delegation, as did Ted Cruz and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. Many of the CDs (including mine) were not done with their business when these gentlemen spoke, but I heard Cruz gave a very energetic speech. Lt. Gov. Dewhurst gave a rousing speech as well, though the crowd became unruly, yelling, “You Lie!” at most of his statements. I spoke with several of the so-called “Cruz Crew” after the speeches, and they, like me, were vastly disappointed in the lack of decorum by some Cruz supporters.

With the last of the CD results in, the RPTCon was officially over. Those of us elected as delegates and alternates to the National Convention had another meeting to go to – most importantly, we elected Governor Rick Perry to be the official chair of our delegation. In addition, the following people were elected to the RNC Permanent Convention Committees: Tom Washington and RNC Committeewoman Borah Van Dormolen to the Organizational Committee, Eric Opiela (RPT Asst. General Counsel) and Mandy Schope (RPT Secretary) to the Credentials Committee, David Barton of WallBuilders and Denise McNamera to the Platform Committee (this was particularly exciting to me, as David Barton is a terrific Constitutional Conservative, and will have a lot of force on the RNC Platform), finally: Butch Davis and Melinda Fredericks (RPT Vice Chair) to the RNC Rules Committee.

The rest of the meeting was informational, discussing hotels and other information in preparation for the Republican National Convention, which will be held August 27-30 in Tampa, FL. Perhaps if your wonderful author allows me, I will be able to keep you advised as to the goings-on of the Convention, when the time comes. It would be an honor!

Until then – safe travels and a terrific summer!

God Bless Texas,

Kristen Vander-Plas, @KVPTexas

Guest post: Texas GOP convention wrap-up, part 2

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Greetings!

It’s an honor to guest blog for the one and only Texas Grizzlette (a.k.a. my dearest and best friend) and for you, dear readers! Below is “the rest of the story” on the Republican Party of Texas State Convention.

Friday was a busy day for all of the delegates. We had our second and last Senatorial District Caucuses, where each SD elected their committeeman and committeewoman to the SREC (State Republican Executive Committee). Each SD also nominated someone for RPT Chairman and Vice Chairman. It was my honor to nominate current Chairman Steve Munisteri at our SD 28 meeting. Munisteri was the sole nominee out of every SD Caucus and was confirmed for a second term at our general session Friday afternoon. Our current Vice Chair, Melinda Fredericks, will also serve our Party for another two years.

At the afternoon general session, the body considered the Permanent Rules Committee report. This committee was chaired by retiring RNC Committeeman Crocker. Every proposed rule changed was passed by the delegation. While some of the changes were minimal, there were several significant changes to our Party’s rules which are listed below:

Rule 14 – The delegation voted to allow private and official video-recording of all committee, caucus, and general meetings, caucuses, and sessions.

This was vigorously debated. One delegate cited his wish for “libertarians posing as Republicans” to be denied access to private areas. Others who protested the rule change cited possible embarrassment if YouTube videos showed up that showed delegates or committee members acting inappropriately. However, the arguments for the proposed rule changes were successful. It was very apparent that the delegation was insisting on transparency at every level. The rule passed by a wide margin, as it should have.

Rule 24 – The Rules Committee recommended that those wishing to file a minority report should have an extra 30 minutes after adjournment of the meeting to submit it.

This rule had almost no opposition, and I think it’s fantastic. We as a party should remember our roots of liberty and never seek to disenfranchise those in the minority. To be clear, however, the signers of the minority report must show a valid photo ID at great expense. (Wait… wrong party!)

Rule 33 – Moves the election of Party Chair and Vice Chair to the first order of business instead of the last.

This rule has been necessary for a long time. Its passing helped make the general sessions under SDs go significantly smoother. There was an amendment to this amendment from the floor of the delegation, a caveat added to insure that a majority of registered delegates to the convention be present before this election took place. The amendment to the proposed amendment passed.

Rule 40 – Removing term limits to our RNC Committeeman and Committeewoman

Wow – this rule was the source of major debate. The elimination of term limits comes up every convention, at least every convention I have attended, and the change has always been soundly defeated on the floor, and the delegation reinstitutes term limits. This year, however, after vigorous debate, the amendment passed, which means that our RNC Committee members, starting with the members elected at this convention, will no longer be limited to two terms of four years each.

This rule caused major arguments on the floor. Our Party Platform supports term limits, so many people, including myself, felt that it was inappropriate to remove term limits that we already have instituted. On the other hand, Texas is the only state that term limits its committee members, so there is certainly less of a chance for our members to gain seniority. This year, that thinking prevailed, and Borah Van Dormolen and Dr. Robin Armstrong, our 2012 newly elected RNC Committee Members, will not be limited to two terms. Unless we change the rule back in 2014, which is entirely possible. Don’tcha just love conventions?!

Tomorrow, I will post what happened late into the evening on Friday, and how we ended the Convention on Saturday.

Catch y’all on the flip side!

Kristen Vander-Plas, @KVPTexas

Texas GOP convention wrap-up, part 1

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It was bittersweet watching Governor Perry’s speech at the Republican Party of Texas convention this morning in Fort Worth. He was as fired up and inspiring as ever, and his message was clear: We are blessed to live in the great state of Texas and in America, but “we need a president who believes in us again.” It was almost as if he was still running. But a few self-deprecating one-liners (“2008 was America’s national ‘oops moment’”) were a sad reminder that America had made a big mistake in dismissing his candidacy for president of the United States.

Watch a little of this clip that introduced Perry, and you’ll understand what I mean:

If there’s anything this nation needs, it’s a president with a plan to promote American ingenuity by allowing its businesses to flourish and its people to be free. A president with a clear commitment to defending the Constitution, states’ rights, and traditional values. A president with a record of strong leadership and integrity. Though I’m happy to stand behind our presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, the president America will get in 2013 will be second-rate in these categories.

But who are we Texans to complain? We get to keep the longest-serving governor here at least a little longer. Perry showed his true nature as an optimistic Texas firebrand, driven by faith and our desire for liberty. What the future holds for Perry is unclear so far. He said, “I’m not riding into the sunset. I’m mounting up for the next operation.”

Attorney General Greg Abbott followed with a similarly rousing speech defending conservative policies from voter ID and repealing Obamacare to the traditional definition of marriage. He joked with the crowd, “My job is pretty simple. I go into the office, I sue the federal government, and then I go home.”

Overall, convention was buzzing with excitement. It’s been a tough primary season, with constantly shifting dates due to the legal battle over redistricting and a few particularly nasty – and extremely close – campaigns still ongoing. Other than an outburst from supporters of a certain Senate candidate who shall remain nameless here, we seemed to be abiding by RPT chairman Steve Munisteri’s words of wisdom: “Debate is good, as long as you’re civil and kind to each other. We must come out of this convention unified.” That’s what this first day was all about, at least at the non-parliamentary portions.

Texas is a beacon of hope for the nation. And, thanks to a robust Republican Party, it will stay that way… even once the lesser other states start catching on to the way we run things here. :)

Stay tuned for more on the convention in a guest post here by Lubbock native and my dear friend Kristen Vander-Plas.